In the FCS Huddle: Combine a chance for FCS prospects to wow 'em

NCAA Football Betting Lines

02/13/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - There are FCS prospects not headed to the NFL Combine who figure to be drafted in April.

Last year, eight players were left on the sideline and still got the call on draft day.

But the 22 FCS players who have their bags packed for Indianapolis next week have a unique opportunity to impress all 32 NFL teams, and they don't want to waste it. They can rest easy that the pro personnel, not Gisele Bundchen, will be critiquing them.

FCS prospects, of course, face the stigma of coming from a small school. It's a label that will follow them even if they go on to enjoy significant success professionally.

At the Combine, though, they have an excellent chance to show they belong on the next level - mentally, physically and emotionally.

"Going and wowing will help your stock," said Josh Buchanan, who operates JB Scouting Inc., which is devoted to smaller-school player evaluation, "but if you go and you perform much worse than you expect, it will hurt you drastically."

At the Combine, where players will participate in different positional groups over four-day spans from Feb. 22-28, the evaluation includes medical exams, psychological testing and interviews with teams, and workouts (like timing, stations and skill drills). While some of the BCS talent will opt out of the workouts to perform them at pro days in the coming months, the FCS players generally are more willing to participate in the drills when healthy.

The FCS contingent is particularly strong in the secondary. Some of the better prospects are among the seven cornerbacks, including Furman's Ryan Steed and Coastal Carolina's Josh Norman. And then there are another four who are safeties, although Montana's Trumaine Johnson, at 6-foot-2, 200 pounds, might move to the position from cornerback.

"It just so happened that it lined up that you had so many in one year, but I think this is more a cycle thing," Buchanan said. "The corners, the DBs will be a little bit down next year because it's so strong this year. You're never going to see 11 (defensive backs) going to the Combine for five years in a row."

Appalachian State wide receiver Brian Quick is considered the FCS' top prospect, but he didn't wow scouts at the Senior Bowl and was never considered to be an academic whiz. The latter factors in when teams decide how he would be able to pick up their offense.

But Quick is so physically gifted at 6-4, 220 pounds that he likely would solidify himself as a second-round selection by having a lights-out Combine.

Buchanan believes Norman and Steed, third- or fourth-round prospects, helped themselves on the all-star game circuit more than Quick. He also felt Chattanooga quarterback B.J. Coleman, Tennessee Tech wide receiver Tim Benford and Quick's Appalachian State teammate, quarterback-turned-cornerback DeAndre Presley, improved their standing in the eyes of scouts.

"The sad thing is when you're coming from this level and you go to an all-star game, if you don't help yourself, you ultimately could slide a little bit," Buchanan said. "Not that your stock falls, but so many other guys helped themselves. You might still be a fifth-round grade, but you might end up in the early- to mid-sixth because several other guys by-passed you with fourth- round grades."

NFL teams select the list of Combine invites in early December, before the all-star games. All is not lost, however, for players like North Dakota State tight end Matt Veldman, Old Dominion defensive tackle Ronnie Cameron and William & Mary running back Jonathan Grimes, whom Buchanan had hoped would have graded high enough for the Combine. They still can impress teams at an upcoming pro day.

But for those players going under the microscope at the RCA Dome, it's a golden opportunity to create some buzz two months before the draft.

"The ones I've talked to say they're real focused on Indy," Buchanan said. "They're putting everything into Indy because they know if, 'I do well there, then I don't even need to do anything (exceptional) at my pro day.'"

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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