Illinois challenges No. 22 Michigan

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/12/2012 - Ann Arbor, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 22nd-ranked Michigan Wolverines will try to make it 15 in a row at home, as they host the Illinois Fighting Illini in a Big Ten Conference battle at the Crisler Center in Ann Arbor.

This is the first of two scheduled meetings this season between these two teams, and the 158th matchup between Illinois and Michigan in history. The Fighting Illini hold an 85-72 lead in the rivalry, after they split the season series in 2010-2011.

Illinois comes into this bout on a two-game losing streak after suffering an 84-71 setback to Indiana on Thursday night. The loss dropped the Fighting Illini's overall record to 16-8, and made its Big Ten record 5-6, which has them tied for sixth place in the standings. Head coach Bruce Weber could not have been too disappointed with his team's offensive performance against the Hoosiers though, as it shot 52 percent from the field. Illinois is being outscored slightly by its Big Ten brethren this season, as it averages 64.2 ppg while permitting 66.2 ppg.

The Illini are one of a select group of teams that has three quality players who can be relied upon to put up big numbers. Brandon Paul is the team's leading scorer with an average of 15.0 ppg, and he also averages a team-best 3.2 apg. Paul had an unbelievable performance in Illinois' upset of Ohio State last month as he scored 43 points on 11-of-15 shooting from the floor. Paul has scored in double figures in 13 straight games. Meyers Leonard (13.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg) adds frontcourt depth as he is one of the top centers in the Big Ten, while D.J. Richardson (12.5 ppg) joins Paul in the backcourt to give Illinois one of the best guard duos in the league.

Michigan head coach John Beilein led his team to a 62-46 home victory over the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Wednesday to stay just 1 1/2 games back of first place in the conference. The Wolverines own an impressive 18-7 overall record, which includes an 8-4 mark in league play. The Wolverines put forth a stellar shooting performance against Nebraska, knocking down 52.2 percent of their field goal attempts, which included an 11-of-24 effort from long range. The Wolverines provide a challenge for their opponents as they allow a mere 60.4 ppg, which is fourth-best in the league coming into the weekend.

Michigan has one of the best backcourts in the nation as Tim Hardaway, Jr. and Trey Burke both have the ability to take over a game. Hardaway is the team's leading scorer with an average of 14.3 ppg, but the sophomore guard has been struggling lately, as he has gone a mere 4-of-21 from the field to score a total of 10 points in the last two games. Hardaway has a big impact every time he steps on the floor, whether he is scoring or not, due to his athleticism, which he utilizes at both ends. Despite being a freshman, Burke is third in the conference in assists (4.9 apg) and second on the team in scoring (14.0 ppg). Jordan Morgan leads Michigan on the boards with 5.5 rpg, and Zack Novak is a third-scoring option as he is netting just under 10 ppg.

Worldwdegamble NCAA Basketball Betting News

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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